Nebraska and Global Climate Change
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/gid/?n=topweathereventsofthedecade2000-2009
According
to the IPCC Report, in the 21st century, the general outlook for the
central United States is that there will be a higher number of significantly warmer
days and warmer nights during the summer with milder (less cold) days and
nights in the winter. They predict that
there will be an increase in the length, frequency and/or intensity of heat
waves over the continental land masses. Winter
precipitation is predicted to increase; however, there is an increased potential
for summer droughts due to reduced precipitation and/or increased evapotranspiration. Also, as central Nebraska depends on river
water flow as a water source for agriculture and residential use, and this
river water originates in the Rocky Mountains from snowpack melt, the climate
effect on the Rocky Mountains is also important. The IPCC report states that “Warming in
western mountains is projected to cause decreased snowpack, more winter
flooding and reduced summer flows, exacerbating competition for over-allocated
water resources.” So Nebraska will need
to be aware of how the climate change affects not only the immediate local area
but also how it will affect the Rocky Mountains.
Drought will be the
biggest climate related event that Nebraska will need to deal with in the
future. The IPCC believes that droughts
will intensify due to reduced precipitation and/or increased evapotranspiration
in various regions including North America.
Drought events will put additional and severe stress on water systems,
especially if the snowpack in the Rocky Mountains is reduced. Also for Nebraska, and the rest of the
Midwest, weather can be affected by mid-latitude cyclonic activity due to cold
polar fronts coming down from Canada that collide with warm tropical fronts
from the Gulf of Mexico. This can result
in severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. The
IPCC predicts that “Based on a range of models, it is likely that future
tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger
peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases
of tropical sea-surface temperatures.” If
there is an increase of hurricanes that travel into the Gulf of Mexico, then there
may be increased incidents of severe weather of thunderstorms, hail and
tornadoes in the Midwest, although the IPCC does not feel they can reliably
project this type of effect.
Nebraska’s
primary industries are agricultural based. Nebraska is a primary producer of corn,
soybeans, beef and pork. Nebraska’s
agricultural facts for 2011 from the USDA and the Nebraska Department of
Agriculture highlight the very high importance Nebraska has in food production.
Cash receipts from all farm commodities
|
$17,282,579,000
|
Cash receipts from all livestock and products
|
$8,453,119,000
|
Commercial red meat production
|
7,163,800,000 lbs.
|
Corn for grain production
|
536,000,000 bushels
|
Great Northern beans production
|
1,044,000 cwt.
|
Pinto beans production
|
793,000 cwt.
|
Soybean production
|
258,405,000 bushels
|
All hay production
|
5,624,000 tons
|
Grain sorghum production
|
6,580,000 bushels
|
Commercial hog slaughter (live weight)
|
2,103,484,000 lbs
|
Winter wheat production
|
65,250,000 bushels
|
Alfalfa hay production
|
3,159,000 tons
|
Nebraska
is also a major exporter of agricultural products with the following 2011 figures
(in millions of dollars): 647 of
Corn, 560 of Soybeans, 438 of Fresh Beef, 278 of Frozen Beef, 240 of Frozen
Pork, and 189 of Fresh Pork. (http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/data/ne.html). Therefore an increased number and intensity
of droughts would have a very detrimental effect on Nebraska’s agriculture. According to a 2007 Census of Agriculture
report, Nebraska ranks first nationally with about 8.5 million irrigated acres.
(http://water.unl.edu/web/cropswater/home). So a drought event and/or reduced snowpack
melt in the eastern Rocky Mountains would cause greatly reduced water
availability for irrigation purposes.
Also, increased extreme weather events, especially hail, would negatively
impact crop production. The economic
impact to Nebraska could be severe as a majority of residents depend directly
or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihood.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/gid/?n=topweathereventsofthedecade2000-2009
Due
to the prediction of warmer summers and increased heat waves, there would be a
large increase in usage of electrical power for air conditioning and cooling;
this would stress the production of electrical power. Nebraska does have two nuclear power plants
that provide a summer capacity of 1245 gigawatts which provides 15.8% of its electricity;
the rest is powered by coal (50%) and natural gas (23.5%). (http://www.eia.gov/nuclear/state/nebraska/). Increased demand for electricity would likely
have to be met with more power plants or decreased usage. Nuclear plants would be better in regards to
reducing emissions; however, prevailing negative public perception of nuclear
power may result in more fossil fueled plants. While a reduction in usage of electricity
might be advisable, there will be a point where the public health and safety
would be endangered especially among the elderly, very young and persons who
are chronically ill or disabled.
Reduced
snowpack in the Rocky Mountains would also impact water availability for other
states that depend on it for residential purposes. There is a high possibility of “water wars”
occurring as each state or water district starts to fight to keep their water
or fight for the right to use whatever water is available. Again, water conservation would go only so
far, especially in crop and livestock production; water is an essential
component of food production and will have to be given a higher priority than
even some residential use.
To
address future actions, first we need to look at the past. While drought, water shortages, and increased
severe weather can conceivably be attributed, in part, to global climate
change, we must also recognize the effects of other systems. There is some data to support the hypothesis
that sunspot activity can be tied to drought cycles. While it is difficult to precisely visually
detect correlations, below is a chart of drought cycles for Nebraska from a
research paper, Multiple Year Drought s in Nebraska, Michael Hayes et
al.
Information
about sunspot cycles from NASA website states that “Monthly averages (updated
monthly) of the sunspot numbers show that the number of sunspots visible on the
sun waxes and wanes with an approximate 11-year cycle.” Below is a sunspot cycle chart from this
site. (http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml).
However, NASA does state
that “The reason it is hard to relate maximum and minimum solar activity
(sunspots) to the Earth's climate, is due to the complexity of the Earth's
climate itself. For example, how does
one sort out whether a long-term weather change was caused by sunspots, or
maybe a coinciding El Nino or La Nina?
Increased volcanic eruptions can also affect the Earth's climate by
cooling the planet. And what about the
burning of fossil fuels and clear cutting rain forests? One thing is more certain, sunspot cycles
have been correlated in the width of tree ring growth. More study will be conducted in the future on
relating sunspot activity and our Earth's climate.”
Finally,
there could be some correlation to oscillations in the Pacific Ocean. A study, Tropical-North Pacific Climate
Linkages Over the Past Four Centuries, Rosanne D’Arrigo et al., has tracked
the Pacific Oscillations by the use of tree rings. A chart of this is below.
While
these all may or may not have any effect on droughts, I believe that the
correlation of climate change to droughts is not as simple as emissions. Regardless, changing how crops are grown and
livestock are raised should start now, as droughts have been part of Nebraska’s
history for a long time and there should be no expectation that this will
change.
The
IPCC Report, Managing The Risks Of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance
Climate Change Adaptation, while not specific in how each region should
address the effects of climate change, they did state that “measures that provide benefits under current
climate and a range of future climate change scenarios, called low-regrets
measures, are available starting points for addressing projected trends in
exposure, vulnerability, and climate extremes. They have the potential to offer
benefits now and lay the foundation for addressing projected changes.” These measures would produce benefits for the
present and also minimize some of the adverse effects of anticipated climate
change. [Among these] are sustainable
land management, including land use planning; and ecosystem management and
restoration. Other low-regrets measures include improvements to health
surveillance, water supply, sanitation, and irrigation and drainage systems…” In view of Nebraska’s important role in food
production, it would be vital to address the issue of irrigation, water
management and land use. Irrigation can
lead to a very high degree of evapotranspiration, and is very poor as far as
water conservation goes. New technology
and practices need to be put into place to more effectively deliver the water
to the plants without such high evaporation risk. Also, the type and hybrid of crops needs to
be adjusted to develop and use varieties that are hardier and use less water. Also, there are breeds of livestock that are
more efficient at using lower quality of feed.
Changing breeds could save on feed production, and therefore lower water
usage.
Another
factor that needs to be addressed is the current water laws. Each state and district has their own laws
but most are based on “first in time, first in right.” The water here in Colorado is allotted for “beneficial”
use which is so general that it covers almost any use imaginable. I think in the future, all the water in the
United States will have to be controlled by one entity – the U.S. Government –
for at this time, priority is given to watering golf courses over watering
crops. With the distinct possibility of
drought and lowered precipitation in the central and western United States,
water cannot be viewed as a continuously renewable and therefore less
vulnerable resource.
(courtesy of Miami County Farm Bureau Association, Kansas)
Lastly,
a big change needs to occur in the general public’s attitude towards
conservation, not just of water, but of many resources such as gasoline,
natural gas and electricity. Conserving
gasoline means changing driving habits and in general, consciously using energy
more wisely. At this time, Nebraska
plays a very important role in providing food not just for the United States,
but for the world. Whatever the cause of
droughts and other weather events, changes should be planned and put into
action before the status of Nebraska’s agricultural production reaches any
serious stage.
