Central Nebraska and Climate Change

Nebraska and Global Climate Change

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/gid/?n=topweathereventsofthedecade2000-2009

According to the IPCC Report, in the 21^st century, the general outlook for the central United States is that there will be a higher number of significantly warmer days and warmer nights during the summer with milder (less cold) days and nights in the winter.  They predict that there will be an increase in the length, frequency and/or intensity of heat waves over the continental land masses.  Winter precipitation is predicted to increase; however, there is an increased potential for summer droughts due to reduced precipitation and/or increased evapotranspiration.  Also, as central Nebraska depends on river water flow as a water source for agriculture and residential use, and this river water originates in the Rocky Mountains from snowpack melt, the climate effect on the Rocky Mountains is also important.  The IPCC report states that “Warming in western mountains is projected to cause decreased snowpack, more winter flooding and reduced summer flows, exacerbating competition for over-allocated water resources.”  So Nebraska will need to be aware of how the climate change affects not only the immediate local area but also how it will affect the Rocky Mountains.

Drought will be the biggest climate related event that Nebraska will need to deal with in the future.  The IPCC believes that droughts will intensify due to reduced precipitation and/or increased evapotranspiration in various regions including North America.  Drought events will put additional and severe stress on water systems, especially if the snowpack in the Rocky Mountains is reduced.  Also for Nebraska, and the rest of the Midwest, weather can be affected by mid-latitude cyclonic activity due to cold polar fronts coming down from Canada that collide with warm tropical fronts from the Gulf of Mexico.  This can result in severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.  The IPCC predicts that “Based on a range of models, it is likely that future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical sea-surface temperatures.”  If there is an increase of hurricanes that travel into the Gulf of Mexico, then there may be increased incidents of severe weather of thunderstorms, hail and tornadoes in the Midwest, although the IPCC does not feel they can reliably   project this type of effect. 

Nebraska’s primary industries are agricultural based.  Nebraska is a primary producer of corn, soybeans, beef and pork.  Nebraska’s agricultural facts for 2011 from the USDA and the Nebraska Department of Agriculture highlight the very high importance Nebraska has in food production.

Cash receipts from all farm commodities	$17,282,579,000
Cash receipts from all livestock and products	$8,453,119,000
Commercial red meat production	7,163,800,000 lbs.
Corn for grain production	536,000,000 bushels
Great Northern beans production	1,044,000 cwt.
Pinto beans production	793,000 cwt.
Soybean production	258,405,000 bushels
All hay production	5,624,000 tons
Grain sorghum production	6,580,000 bushels
Commercial hog slaughter (live weight)	2,103,484,000 lbs
Winter wheat production	65,250,000 bushels
Alfalfa hay production	3,159,000 tons

Nebraska is also a major exporter of agricultural products with the following 2011 figures (in millions of dollars): 647 of Corn, 560 of Soybeans, 438 of Fresh Beef, 278 of Frozen Beef, 240 of Frozen Pork, and 189 of Fresh Pork. (http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/data/ne.html).  Therefore an increased number and intensity of droughts would have a very detrimental effect on Nebraska’s agriculture.  According to a 2007 Census of Agriculture report, Nebraska ranks first nationally with about 8.5 million irrigated acres. (http://water.unl.edu/web/cropswater/home).  So a drought event and/or reduced snowpack melt in the eastern Rocky Mountains would cause greatly reduced water availability for irrigation purposes.  Also, increased extreme weather events, especially hail, would negatively impact crop production.  The economic impact to Nebraska could be severe as a majority of residents depend directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihood. 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/gid/?n=topweathereventsofthedecade2000-2009

Due to the prediction of warmer summers and increased heat waves, there would be a large increase in usage of electrical power for air conditioning and cooling; this would stress the production of electrical power.  Nebraska does have two nuclear power plants that provide a summer capacity of 1245 gigawatts which provides 15.8% of its electricity; the rest is powered by coal (50%) and natural gas (23.5%). (http://www.eia.gov/nuclear/state/nebraska/).   Increased demand for electricity would likely have to be met with more power plants or decreased usage.  Nuclear plants would be better in regards to reducing emissions; however, prevailing negative public perception of nuclear power may result in more fossil fueled plants.  While a reduction in usage of electricity might be advisable, there will be a point where the public health and safety would be endangered especially among the elderly, very young and persons who are chronically ill or disabled.

Reduced snowpack in the Rocky Mountains would also impact water availability for other states that depend on it for residential purposes.  There is a high possibility of “water wars” occurring as each state or water district starts to fight to keep their water or fight for the right to use whatever water is available.  Again, water conservation would go only so far, especially in crop and livestock production; water is an essential component of food production and will have to be given a higher priority than even some residential use.

To address future actions, first we need to look at the past.  While drought, water shortages, and increased severe weather can conceivably be attributed, in part, to global climate change, we must also recognize the effects of other systems.  There is some data to support the hypothesis that sunspot activity can be tied to drought cycles.  While it is difficult to precisely visually detect correlations, below is a chart of drought cycles for Nebraska from a research paper, Multiple Year Drought s in Nebraska, Michael Hayes et al.

Information about sunspot cycles from NASA website states that “Monthly averages (updated monthly) of the sunspot numbers show that the number of sunspots visible on the sun waxes and wanes with an approximate 11-year cycle.”  Below is a sunspot cycle chart from this site. (http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml).

However, NASA does state that “The reason it is hard to relate maximum and minimum solar activity (sunspots) to the Earth's climate, is due to the complexity of the Earth's climate itself.  For example, how does one sort out whether a long-term weather change was caused by sunspots, or maybe a coinciding El Nino or La Nina?  Increased volcanic eruptions can also affect the Earth's climate by cooling the planet.  And what about the burning of fossil fuels and clear cutting rain forests?  One thing is more certain, sunspot cycles have been correlated in the width of tree ring growth.  More study will be conducted in the future on relating sunspot activity and our Earth's climate.”

Finally, there could be some correlation to oscillations in the Pacific Ocean.  A study, Tropical-North Pacific Climate Linkages Over the Past Four Centuries, Rosanne D’Arrigo et al., has tracked the Pacific Oscillations by the use of tree rings.  A chart of this is below.

While these all may or may not have any effect on droughts, I believe that the correlation of climate change to droughts is not as simple as emissions.  Regardless, changing how crops are grown and livestock are raised should start now, as droughts have been part of Nebraska’s history for a long time and there should be no expectation that this will change.

The IPCC Report, Managing The Risks Of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, while not specific in how each region should address the effects of climate change, they did state that “measures that provide benefits under current climate and a range of future climate change scenarios, called low-regrets measures, are available starting points for addressing projected trends in exposure, vulnerability, and climate extremes. They have the potential to offer benefits now and lay the foundation for addressing projected changes.”  These measures would produce benefits for the present and also minimize some of the adverse effects of anticipated climate change.  [Among these] are sustainable land management, including land use planning; and ecosystem management and restoration. Other low-regrets measures include improvements to health surveillance, water supply, sanitation, and irrigation and drainage systems…”  In view of Nebraska’s important role in food production, it would be vital to address the issue of irrigation, water management and land use.  Irrigation can lead to a very high degree of evapotranspiration, and is very poor as far as water conservation goes.  New technology and practices need to be put into place to more effectively deliver the water to the plants without such high evaporation risk.  Also, the type and hybrid of crops needs to be adjusted to develop and use varieties that are hardier and use less water.  Also, there are breeds of livestock that are more efficient at using lower quality of feed.  Changing breeds could save on feed production, and therefore lower water usage.

Another factor that needs to be addressed is the current water laws.  Each state and district has their own laws but most are based on “first in time, first in right.”  The water here in Colorado is allotted for “beneficial” use which is so general that it covers almost any use imaginable.  I think in the future, all the water in the United States will have to be controlled by one entity – the U.S. Government – for at this time, priority is given to watering golf courses over watering crops.  With the distinct possibility of drought and lowered precipitation in the central and western United States, water cannot be viewed as a continuously renewable and therefore less vulnerable resource.

(courtesy of Miami County Farm Bureau Association, Kansas) 

Lastly, a big change needs to occur in the general public’s attitude towards conservation, not just of water, but of many resources such as gasoline, natural gas and electricity.  Conserving gasoline means changing driving habits and in general, consciously using energy more wisely.   At this time, Nebraska plays a very important role in providing food not just for the United States, but for the world.  Whatever the cause of droughts and other weather events, changes should be planned and put into action before the status of Nebraska’s agricultural production reaches any serious stage.